2010年10月21日星期四

China's gross domestic product rose 9.6% from a year earlier in the third quarter

The moderation in economic growth was in line with economists' expectations. Given the central bank's surprise decision to raise benchmark interest rates earlier this week, the data likely indicate the authorities are comfortable with the current slowdown and are more concerned about rising inflation and property prices.

'The economic recovery trend was further consolidated, and is developing in the direction [targeted by] macroeconomic controls,' the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement announcing the latest figures.

China's consumer price index rose 3.6% in September, the bureau's data showed, up from August's 3.5% and matching economists' expectations. Analysts still expect consumer inflation to moderate in coming months as the impact of poor summer weather on food prices fades, but elevated food prices have already lasted longer than many analysts expected.

Recent economic data have also suggested that China's economic momentum, after slowing for several months, bottomed out around July and has begun to stabilize or even pick up since then.

The purchasing managers' index, a widely followed gauge of manufacturing activity, in September hit its highest level since May. Housing sales also recovered in September, and imports of commodities like oil picked up as well.

A series of government measures this year, including mandated higher down-payment requirements, have attempted to stave off a property bubble but have had only a limited effect. Nationwide property prices started rising again in September, which analysts think may have been one of the triggers for the central bank's rate rise.

The rate increase sparked a global sell-off earlier this week in stocks, commodities and emerging-market currencies on concern that demand from China, one of the main engines of the global economic recovery, would decrease.

But officials from across Asia were quick to say that they didn't anticipate a major impact from moderately higher Chinese rates.

'The Chinese economy will likely continue Amid such concern in Asian countries that depend on Chinese purchases of their exports, oto grow strongly, so that our exports to China, especially coal exports, will unlikely be affected much,' said Budi Mulya, deputy governor of Indonesia's central bank.

Chinese analysts and property developers said the quarter-percentage-point rate increase itself is too small to significantly curb mortgage demand or make borrowing costs unbearable for developers.

However, the market outlook could deteriorate dramatically if Beijing signals an extended monetary tightening cycle or harsher measures such as a real-estate tax.

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